Long-time Tesla bear Toni Sacconaghi forsees more turbulent times ahead for the electric vehicle maker on the heels of its annual shareholder meeting. “Elon Musk reiterated several times that the next 12 months will be difficult for Tesla, and attributed his caution to macro issues, which is inconsistent with the relative constructive outlook for the broader auto industry,” the Bernstein analyst wrote Wednesday in a note to clients. “We believe Tesla’s challenges instead stem from its limited model lineup, and that 2024 could be even more challenging.” At the annual meeting Tuesday, CEO Elon Musk vowed to deliver Tesla’s first Cybertrucks in 2023, while sharing expectations for a rocky economy ahead. Following the event, Musk told CNBC’s David Faber that he believes the Federal Reserve may be too slow to lower interest rates in the near term and defended some of his heavily criticized tweets. According to Sacconaghi, many of Tesla’s challenges come from its limited model lineup and “unrealistically aggressive” ambitions for its Model 3 and Model Y and their addressable markets. “Tesla’s volume goal was for Model 3 + Y to be 3-4M units collectively, which would have represented nearly 50% of global market share in their categories – unrealistic in our view, given how highly fragmented the global auto market is and the fact that a significant share of the potential buyers remain skeptical of EVs and are not likely to switch from ICE in the near term,” he noted. The long-time Tesla bear retained his underperform rating and $150 price target on shares, reflecting about 10% downside from Tuesday’s close. Shares added nearly 4% on Wednesday, building on their more than 39% gain year to date. Bernstein also views plans to launch and scale a new high volume model before 2025 overly optimistic, noting that production ramp for the company’s Cybertruck has already been pushed out two years. TSLA YTD mountain Tesla shares in 2023 Elsewhere, the analyst remains “skeptical” of bullish commentary on Tesla’s Optimus robot and its long-term contribution to the company’s value, citing “incredible technical complexity” and costs. Plans for the company’s full self-driving capabilities marks another area of concern. Despite expectations by Musk for FSD acceleration, regulatory and consumer obstacles could take years to clear, Sacconaghi said. “Musk conceded that technical improvements in FSD are non-linear, requiring constant architectural redesign, seemingly making incremental improvements increasingly difficult,” he added. — CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed reporting
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